There are rumors flying that the Facebook bubble is about to burst, that it has exceeded its own growth potential, resulting in a speedy demise.
Maybe it has, and maybe it hasn’t. I’m not an expert, but…I am smart enough to learn from the past. That’s what history is for, isn’t it?
We have had a lot of bubbles related to the internet. The dot com bubble burst some time ago. MySpace, once the king of social networking, is pretty much history. I have an account, but I have logged into it about twice in the last three years. Even then, it was just to connect with someone who hadn’t moved on to Facebook, not because I cared about my own account. I didn’t like it much, and I found it awkward and with an excessively youthful nature. Facebook suited me better, with a more run of the mill air about it as Every Man and Every Woman took to it like ducks to water. Now, I actually know some people who think the internet IS Facebook, never leaving its comforting pages to wander unfettered through the digital universe we have collectively created.
At the same time, people aren’t going to magically abandon Facebook unless something better comes along. Google presented us with Google Plus, then disappointed many users as it adopted more and more features that resembled those of Facebook. We hadn’t flocked to it for a Facebook replacement, we had flocked there to find something DIFFERENT. Somehow, I think it may have failed to deliver what we were craving, although it does have some of the features people seek.
So what do people want?
That is the million dollar question really. In general, among the people I have approached , they want some specific things:
Ability to connect with others with similar ideas/interests.
Ability to control how much information is made public.
Ability to integrate and yet separate their private and public personas. (Yes, they are different! We all have our pro side, and then we have the side who gets depressed, eats a quart of ice cream, a whole bag of chips, and vegs on the sofa for an entire weekend in their pajamas…featuring My Little Pony on the bodice. Do we really want our co-worker and clients s to see our angst?)
The ability to share things, especially cute kittens and political memes. Oh, and their opinions, of course. Often. Without. Thinking.
The real kicker is that it is hard to keep public and private separate, and yet it is very important. More and more companies want to take a look at who you are on Facebook before..and after….hiring you. There have been cases where they wanted the passwords as well, even before hiring you. (Not sure how legal that really is, and I would object strongly, but desperation in this job market probably inspired many applicants to just give in.) Law enforcement is looking harder at this information as well, and many people suspect that the government spies on us all continually through social media. If so, I hope they enjoy the recipes and cute animal pictures that litter my posts. Oh, and MouseHunt, the one game that I keep on playing.
So, that big mysterious agency, which is called Big Undercover Liberty Limiting Special Host of Investigating Technicians (BULLSHIT for short) is watching our every tweet and post, whether its on Google Plus, Facebook, MySpace, Twitter, or Secret Text Updating Data Inside Technology (aka STUPID) status update in search of covert, illegal, or terrorist activities. That’s a big job, and it’s an important one. After all, not even the super snooping capabilities of the latest CARNIVORE government spyware program can detect and analyze the language used inside of a cute kitten meme. They have even found it necessary to put undercover agents into the dating sites in search of terrorists and anarchists who are using these sites to find women to marry and then obtain legal status to continue their illegal activities in the United States.
Sure they are.
The US is notorious, world wide, for their strong stance against illegal entry compared to other countries.
And I have a couple of bridges for sale, one on each coast of the USA, been in the family for a long time…
Go try sneaking into Mexico, China, North Korea, or heck, even sneak into Iraq while you are at it. After you have your “vacation” they’ll send you home, free of charge, right?
But that’s okay, we’re okay with that. Just like we’re okay with the way Facebook is going. Never mind that we’re already suspicious of their marketing techniques and desires to use our names and images to promote other goods and services. We’ll happily go along with it, until the rats all find another ship to jump to. All we have to do is figure out which ship will be the one they choose, so we’re riding along with our own cheese store, right?
At least we know what it won’t be. It won’t be Yahoo, MSN, AOL, MySpace, or G+. Will it simply fracture apart, as people opt to leave the ultra populated space for smaller, more intimate and more user-responsive versions of social media?
Actually, I think that’s what I would place my bet on. As shifts occur in how we interact, obtain our information and entertainment, how we shop, and where we work, we’re going to see that continual evolution. Chat programs, while now usually subscription based, are becoming increasingly popular, and often oriented to topic or demographic data oriented. We want our information and written entertainment also delivered digitally, and that creates another mode of connection.
That makes me wonder. What if Amazon introduced a social media program, one that allowed people to discuss types of products, literary works by genre, etc.? Would we see the rise of that type of social media connection, one provided by the seller of goods as a way to encourage people to continue shopping via their website rather than to venture into the “real world” with all of its inconveniences, expenses and dangers?
Or maybe we’ll see the right wing control factor coming into play, and instead of corporations operating the social media, it will become a government sponsored, controlled, and monitored environment. We’ll all be tagged with our personal data, preventing any more mysterious encounters, as well as encounters of the really dangerous sort that we’ve all heard about.
The ancient Chinese may have regarded “May you live in interesting times” as a curse, but it’s our mantra. We do live in interesting times, and who knows how they’ll be regarded in the future. Are we going to be immortalized in unrealistic works of fiction that equate this era to the Wild Wild West that really never was what the movies portray it as?
That could be too. All I know is that we’re going to see changes, some from evolution, others from reactionary governments. We’ll see how our data is delivered and censored change, as well as who delivers what will change. The wild and utterly independent voices of today’s internet radio may be silenced in the coming years, as expenses continue to rise as economies continue to struggle. We don’t know.
But, it will definitely be interesting to watch and find out, won’t it?